The Covid-19 pandemic has shaken up our lives, crippling economies as well as health care systems across the world at a dizzying speed and affecting millions of people across continents.
The sheer scale of this disaster is devastating. Six months post the onset of the virus, there is still much that we do not understand. We are all, unintentionally, part of a huge on-going experiment that scientists do not, as yet, have accurate answers to. Yet, the certainty of the next big pandemic ravaging the planet was never in doubt.
As far back as 2015, Bill Gates had warned that it was coming. The co-founder of the software giant Microsoft had quoted lessons learnt from the 2014 Ebola crisis and stated bluntly that the world was not prepared for the future pandemic which, as he saw it, was inevitable. Gates pointed out that while countries were frantically working to reduce the threat of a nuclear war, they seemed blind to the possibility of a killer virus that could stop the world in its tracks. As he put it in a TED talk five years ago, “If anything kills over 10 million people in the next few decades, it’s most likely to be a highly infectious virus rather than a war. Not missiles, but microbes.” All too unfortunately, his words were prophetic and yet we were all unprepared.
History has taught us vital lessons that we have clearly failed to learn. Governments everywhere wasted precious weeks in denial of the crisis and flouted lessons from previous pandemics. A quick walk down the pages of history will underline the need for more awareness and preparedness. Here is a short outline of diseases that have, in the past, brought humanity to its knees.
Plagues and Pandemics Through the Ages
Plague of Justinian (A.D. 541-549)
Named after the Roman Emperor in Constantinople, the Justinian Plague was spread by rats and the fleas that infested them. This bubonic plague persisted over many years, killing as many as 30 to 50 million people – which was half the world’s population at the time! As there were no accurate records, there is still much speculation about the origin and spread. It is believed to have originated near the Suez in Egypt, spreading through the East Mediterranean and Byzantine Empire with devastating effects on Asia, North Africa, Arabia and Europe.
The Black Death (A.D. 1347-1351)
Some 800 years later, the Black Death struck in Central Asia. This second major bubonic plague was spread by fleas living on black rats that travelled on merchant ships and made its way throughout Europe, killing as many as 200 million people. This apocalyptic catastrophe was immortalised in the legend of the ‘Pied Piper of Hamelin’, a story that was created to explain to children why so few of their generation survived. The demographic and economic base of Europe was transformed by the Black Death to an extent never experienced before. The plague had a profound impact on the course of European history, causing social, religious and economic upheavals that had far-reaching effects.
Cholera Pandemics (A.D. 1817-1824)
The first outbreak of the Asiatic Cholera pandemic originated in Kolkata, India. It then spread through South Asia to the Middle East, Africa and the Mediterranean coast. From 1817, multiple cholera pandemics continued to arise and were spread to all parts of the world through trade routes as well as colonial expansion, causing millions of deaths. The outbreak was caused by poor sanitation contaminating the water supply. Even today, cholera exists in Africa, Southeast Asia and Haiti.
Russian Influenza (A.D. 1889-90)
The Russian flu is considered to be the first clearly identified avian (H2N2) sourced influenza. First reported in Bukhara, Russian Empire, this pandemic progressed through Russia, Eastern Europe and even the US, killing more than a million victims worldwide. Notable victims included Prince Albert Victor, Queen Victoria’s grandson. Recently, there have been speculations that it might have been caused by a coronavirus found in the 1960s, perhaps a predecessor of our present day Covid-19.
Spanish Influenza (A.D. 1918-1920)
Caused by a H1N1 virus of avian origin, the Spanish flu emerged in Europe and rapidly spread worldwide. It was estimated that one-thirds of the world’s population became infected and as there was no effective vaccine, as many as 50 million people were killed. The far-reaching impacts of this pandemic caused the economic depression in Europe, the rise of Nazism in Germany and eventually even contributed to the Second World War.
Asian Flu (A.D. 1957)
A global pandemic that killed over one million people worldwide, the H2N2 avian flu originated in Guizhou, China, spread to Singapore, Taiwan as well as India, and then onwards to the USA and Europe. The rapid deployment of an effective vaccine within 7 months of the original cases being reported slowed its progress and helped to contain the pandemic.
HIV-AIDS (A.D. 1981)
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) attacks the immune cells of the human body. Without treatment, it can lead to AIDS (acquired immunodeficiency syndrome). First identified in 1981, the HIV-AIDS pandemic is said to have its origins in West Africa and considered to be zoonotic. HIV-AIDS results in death from other causes as the immune system is destroyed. It has resulted in the deaths of over 30 million victims across the world. While the disease can be managed, it is not yet curable.
SARS (A.D. 2002-2004)
SARS or the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome appears to have been sourced in horseshoe bats in Yunnan, China, spreading to Asian palm civet cats and then to human victims. Rapid quarantining of identified patients resulted in containing the spread and limiting the loss of lives. A relatively rare disease, SARS had 8098 proven cases with 774 known deaths.
MERS (A.D. 2015)
Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was a virus that was transferred to humans from infected dromedary camels in countries in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia. A coronavirus that is thought to have originated in bats, it was typically spread by camels and was therefore also called the camel flu. To date, there have been 2519 cases and 866 deaths.
Ebola (A.D. 2014-16)
The Western African Ebola virus epidemic was an outbreak that caused the loss of 11,323 lives and brought about major socioeconomic disruption in the region. This severe disease had an average case fatality rate of 50%. It was found that fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are the natural Ebola virus hosts.
Covid-19 (A.D. 2019-21)
The ongoing pandemic of Covid-19 was first identified in Wuhan, China in December 2019 and was declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020. As of June 28, 2020 over 10 million cases have been reported across 188 countries and territories, resulting in over 5 lakh deaths. To date, there is no known vaccine or anti-viral treatment available. Known treatment is largely symptomatic and supportive.
What Does the Future Hold?
The race for a Covid-19 vaccine has accelerated and taken on massive proportions never seen before in medical history. Laboratories are grappling with the challenges of conducting clinical trials and producing billions of safe doses that do not have side effects.
Even though future pandemics may not be easily prevented, scientists have garnered considerable knowledge about pandemic risk management. There are standard public health measures in place to protect individuals and collaboration between medical sciences as well as community health is growing. The search for a panacea that will cure all pandemics is still on. It will require deep research and better understanding of the pathogenesis of the live virus as well as studies into both natural and vaccine-induced immunity.
The search is still on…